The digital predictor

“What can we do?”

“Yeah! It’s so irritating!”

“Is there no way out?”

“At least I can’t see it.”

This conversation went on for quite a while between Tom and Tim who were in their early twenties. They were released from the prison after completing 6 months sentence for stealing a gentleman’s purse in a bus.

“How did you get caught?” asked Tim.

“Not I but “we”. We were both equally responsible,” said Tom with some irritation in his tone.

“OK, OK. How did we get caught?” Tim corrected himself and continued, “I thought you were an expert in doing things with your fingers”.

“I am”, said Tom, “but we were being watched closely, you know”.

“Yes, that predictor digital system” said Tim grinding his teeth. It all began with social surveillance systems. Security cameras everywhere. “If you have done nothing wrong, then you have nothing to hide " said the government. With a common feeling of hatred against “crime in general " people accepted the surveillance cameras. Then all monetary transactions were recorded. In the name of medical security the hospitals stored physical and mental health records of individuals in a central database. Websites kept a record of what advertisements their visitors chose to view and so on to create consumer profiles. Profiling helped them in predicting the future choices of people. General public had no reason to protest when government got an access to the records of the companies. The profiling and predicting algorithms for consumers were already in place with the companies. The government had modified it to include every aspect of the life of every individual. The Master Algorithm could predict what any individual was most likely to do at a given moment. The AI made predictions more and more perfect with passage of time. You only had to enter the roll number of a citizen. Everybody knew it. Nobody cared.

Tom and Tim sat silently on a bench by the river.

“But Tom”, said Tim in a low voice, “what can we do?” This time Tom found the question more irritating than the digital predictor system. But the question was valid. He could not run away from it. It was a challenge. Till now the two petty thieves had taken the police department as a challenge to their skill and creativity. Now a new rival had arrived on the scene. They could not back off.

“How does the Predictor system work?” said Tom with his eyes closed. “How do I know?” Tim was still feeling frustrated. “I wasn’t asking you”, said Tom looking at Tim, “I was thinking aloud”. “How could I know?” was Tim’s simple answer. “Never mind” thought Tom, trying to keep his head cool. Again he closed his eyes and said “So how does the system work?” Exasperated Tim looked in another direction. “You see,” continued Tom, “If I am sitting next to a person, the electronic system guesses from my profile that I am going to steal something from him. If I steal his purse or anything then the system’s prediction is correct and my profile doesn’t change”. Here Tom opened his eyes wide and looked at Tim. Tim got confused. “So?” he said. Tom gave a broad smile and said “If I don’t steal then the system thinks that the prison has changed my nature! It updates my profile!” “OK”, said Tim in a calm voice, “So what’s your plan?” Tom’s smile broadened. “I will sit next to my possible victim but I won’t steal anything from him!” “So you refuse to take the challenge posed by the digital prediction system?” asked Tim with a sarcastic smile. “No! of course not” said Tom. I am going to beat the system, though it will take some time.” Tim still couldn’t guess what was in Tom’s mind. “And what will you do till then?” asked Tim. “I am beginning to execute my plan right now” said Tom as he got up from the bench and started walking towards the city.

As anybody could guess, Tom who was a well connected man got a job at a construction site along with Tim. The employer was himself a corrupt man and felt comfortable with men who were ready to do unethical things when ordered. Tom and Tim continued doing their work sincerely and efficiently. Tom did not carryout any theft for next three months. “But how much will this change his profile?” wondered Tim. 

At the police station, the three policemen found anger rising fast in their brains. They had caught Jack the thief successfully after a long chase. But even after a long interrogation, which involved some unofficial physical torture, the middle aged thief would not agree that he had stolen a businessman’s briefcase. “Go to his house and search it thoroughly” ordered the officer. A search warrant was obtained and the search was carried out, but the stolen object was not found.

“How come they did not suspect you?” asked Tim while Tom was emptying the briefcase he had stolen a week ago. “They had concentrated all their attention on poor old Jack” said Tom with a wink. But when the briefcase got stolen in the dentist’s waiting room, you and Jack were sitting close to the briefcase. The system guessed and predicted that Jack would rob the businessman but it did not suspect you. Why?”

Tom chuckled and said “There were many men sitting in the waiting room, and the room had one security camera as well. Jack did not intend to steel the briefcase. When he stood up to go, he came between the briefcase and the camera. At that time I walked up to the briefcase and picked it up. My activity was concealed by Jack because Jack was between me and the camera. As Jack walked to the door, I walked keeping him in the line of the security camera. Outside the hospital, I had parked my car so that the camera in the premises could not fully capture the area. So there too the camera footage would not reveal anything.” “That’s fine,” said Tim, “you successfully avoided getting recorded by hiding behind moving objects, but why did the digital predictor not suggest your name to the police though it knew you were in the room?” Tom gave a serious look and said, “I managed to change my profile”. “How did you do that?” Tim asked.

“For past three months I have not carried out any criminal activity. So the probability of my conducting a crime has decreased from the point of view of the predictor system, though the probability is not zero, it is well below that of Jack’s committing a theft. So only Jack’s name was suggested to the police. The predictor system can predict only on the basis of historical facts”. Still Tim was not convinced. “There are people who pretend to be helpful but after gaining your confidence they cheat you of your life’s savings”, he said “but our predictor system is not ignorant of this type of human behavior. So once your name enters the records, it stays”. “Yes it stays in the police records. But our policemen are relying more and more on the digital predictor. They won’t take pains to check the records of all the men sitting in the waiting room” Tom said with a shrug. “No”, said Tim, “I mean the record exists with the digital predictor too, and it knew you were in the room. Why didn’t it suspect you?” “From the digital predictor’s point of view I am as innocent as a five years old child. I have no preferences and I am still exploring the world”, said Tom with a smile. Tim kept looking at him. Tom knew he needed to give a more detailed explanation.

“So, how do I make a system think I have no preferences?” said Tom. Then he started answering his own question. “ I randomly click links to visit random web pages. I randomly click on any advertisements and news I see on any web page.” At this moment Tim recalled Tom’s weired behaviour he sometimes noticed. “Is that why in restaurants you sometimes order dishes that you don’t like?” He asked. Tom nodded and said “That’s the price I pay for cleaning my profile.” “And I have seen you going to the small groceries shop far away from our room though there’s a supermarket close by” said Tim who now felt that all of Tom’s decisions were based on how to cheat the code. “Yes, that too for the same reason”, agreed Tom.

Tim fell silent for a moment. Tom understood he still had some questions to ask. Tom’s guess was correct. Tim looked at him and said, " No Tom, I am missing something. The predictor algorithm is so smart and there is so much data that if you stand at a crossroads thinking which way you should go, the algorithm would know what decision you will be making next moment. Your actions are based on your desires and on the needs of your mind and body, and on your knowledge about how you can satisfy them. The needs of your mind and body are either known or can be easily calculated by the degital system. The amount of knowledge you have is also known and updated in real time. So the algorithm knows which path you will take at the crossroads even before you make the decision. So how do you cheat the system that knows you so well?” Tom smiled at Tim’s curiosity.

Tom put his hand in his pocket and said “Most of the times I don’t make a decision. I allow this thing to do the decision making job”. He pulled out his mobile phone and said “There are websites that provide a list of random numbers. You only have to select a range. At the crossroads you select four as your range and you get a random number between one and four. At a restaurant that has twenty items on its menu you select the number twenty as your range and the site gives you a number between one and twenty which you use as the serial number of the dish you should order. I am using this method of decision making for the first time. The predictor algorithm does not know it so it cannot predict which way I will go from the intersection of roads or which dish I will order. It assumes that I have made a conscious decision. It goes on recording my decisions and tries to find my priorities. But since all the decisions are made randomly by me they are equally probable. My profile fits that of a little child who does not even know what is good and what is bad for him. Thus I am least suspected.

Tim gave a loud laugh. “You have found a great way of making decisions. Now shall we go out for dinner or shall I cook something nice for you?” Tom stood up. He thrust his hand in his pocket and pulled out a coin. He tossed it high in the air and asked, “Heads or tails, partner?”